An Evaluation of Counter Measures for Smallpox Outbreak using an individual based model and Taking into Consideration the Limitation of Human Resources of Public Health Workers

• Ohkusa Yasushi

  Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• individual based modelを用いての公衆衛生的対応能力を明示的に考慮した天然痘対策の評価
• individual based model オ モチイテ ノ コウシュウ エイセイテキ タイオウ ノウリョク オ メイジテキ ニ コウリョ シタ テンネントウタイサク ノ ヒョウカ

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the guidelines of a plan of action for the initial phase of a smallpox outbreak using an individual based model.<br>Methods and Materials: We create a model in which one public health center is in charge of a city with a population of ten thousand and exposure of the agent occurs at a shopping mall. We compare the results of two counter measures, ring vaccination and mass vaccination, by the initial size of exposure, starting time of counter measures, and the number of public health workers.<br>Results: Simulation results show that the effectiveness of ring vaccination declines rapidly as the size of initial exposure increases if there is not a sufficient number of health workers. Conversely, if there is a sufficient number of health workers, the effectiveness does not decline very much even in the case of an increase in the size of the initial exposure. On the other hand, the effectiveness of mass vaccination is not heavily impacted by the size of the initial exposure.<br>Discussion: Ring vaccination is preferable to mass vaccination if the response starts rapidly and the size of the initial exposure is limited to less than twice the number of public health workers. If the number of those initially exposed is larger than twice the number of public health workers, ring vaccination is not effective. Therefore, it is important to decide the number of public health workers who will be assigned to control an outbreak according to this criterion. In order to recognize the size of the initial exposure immediately, we need to develop a statistical model to estimate it.

Journal

• Iryo To Shakai

  Iryo To Shakai 16 (3), 275-284, 2006

  The Health Care Science Institute

Keywords

• Smallpox
• Bioterrorism attack
• Public health response
• The mathematical model
• individual based model

Details

• CRID: 1390001204473116416
• NII Article ID: 10018551110
• NII Book ID: AN10372213
• DOI: 10.4091/iken.16.275
• ISSN: 18834477
• ISSN: 09169202
• NDL BIB ID: 8679672
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I8679672
• Web Site: https://search.jamas.or.jp/link/ui/2007231235
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed