Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050

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  • Halada Kohmei
    Innovative Materials Engineering Laboratory, National Institute for Materials Science
  • Shimada Masanori
    Innovative Materials Engineering Laboratory, National Institute for Materials Science
  • Ijima Kiyoshi
    Innovative Materials Engineering Laboratory, National Institute for Materials Science

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Abstract

Forecasts up to 2050 are made of consumption of the following metals: Fe, Al, Cu, Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, Si, Sn, rare earths, Mo, Li, Sb, W, Ag, Co, In, Au, Ga, Pt and Pd. The forecasts are based on the linear decoupling model of the relation between per capita metal consumption and per capita GDP. The models of each metal are applied to the economic development model of BRICs and G6 countries. According to these forecasts, the overall consumption of metals in 2050 will be five times greater than the current levels, and demand for metals, such as Au, Ag, Cu, Ni, Sn, Zn, Pb and Sb, is expected to be several times greater than the amount of their respective reserves. Demand for Fe and Pt, which is considered to be optimistic about the resource exhaustion, will also exceed the current reserves. Urgent measures are needed to find alternatives from common resources and to shift into sound materials circulation society.

Journal

  • MATERIALS TRANSACTIONS

    MATERIALS TRANSACTIONS 49 (3), 402-410, 2008

    The Japan Institute of Metals and Materials

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