本州東部におけるチシマザサの潜在分布域の予測と気候変化の影響評価  [in Japanese] Habitat prediction and impact assessment of climate change on Sasa kurilensis in eastern Honshu, Japan  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

<p>Relationship between <i>Sasa kurilensis</i> distributions and climate was modelled and clarified at ca. 1-km<sup>2</sup> spatial resolutions in eastern Honshu, Japan. Occurrence probability was then predicted under both current climate and a future climate change scenario to assess the impact of climate change. A classification tree model was used to predict the potential habitat. Five climatic factors (warmth index: <i>WI</i>, minimum temperature of the coldest month: <i>TMC</i>, summer precipitation: <i>PRS</i>, maximum snow water equivalent: <i>MSW</i>, winter rainfall: <i>WR</i>) were used as predictor variables, and the species distribution data obtained from Phytosociological Relevé Data Base (PRDB) was used as a response variable. Deviance-Weighted Scores (DWS) revealed that the most influential factor for the species distribution was <i>MSW</i>, followed by <i>WI</i>, <i>PRS</i>, <i>WR</i> and <i>TMC</i>. Predicted potential habitat was divided into "suitable habitat" and "marginal habitat", based on the optimal threshold occurrence probability calculated from the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Climatic thresholds of potential habitat were also detected. The area of suitable habitats and marginal habitats were predicted to decrease 78.3% and 32.9% respectively, due to decrease in <i>MSW</i> and increase in <i>WI</i>.</p>

Journal

  • Theory and Applications of GIS

    Theory and Applications of GIS 16(1), 11-25, 2008-06-30

    Geographic Information Systems Association

References:  60

Cited by:  6

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    10024464518
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AN10457305
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • Article Type
    Journal Article
  • ISSN
    13405381
  • NDL Article ID
    10224409
  • NDL Source Classification
    ZM13(科学技術--科学技術一般--データ処理・計算機)
  • NDL Call No.
    Z14-B125
  • Data Source
    CJP  CJPref  NDL  J-STAGE 
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