The Comparison of Three Methods for Predicting Whole Lactation Records from Test Day Records of Holstein Cows

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  • ホルスタイン雌牛の検定日記録から乳期生産量を予測する３種の方法の比較
  • ホルスタイン メウシ ノ ケンテイビ キロク カラ ニュウキ セイサンリョウ オ ヨソク スル 3シュ ノ ホウホウ ノ ヒカク

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Abstract

Three methods were compared to predict the whole record of the lactation from records of test days in Holstein cows. Data consisted of 232,337 test day records obtained from 771 first lactation Holstein cows in four herds of the National Livestock Breeding Center. The 305d milk record is a complete record of daily milk yields during the period of 305 days of milk production. The three estimates predicted by test interval (TI), best prediction (BP) and multiple trait prediction (MTP) were compared with the actual 305d milk yields. The model of Wood or Wilmink was adopted for milk yields in the MTP method. For the comparison of the TI method and BP method, in the early to middle stages of the lactation, the BP predictions retained its high accuracy and the TI method had better predictions at the end stage of the lactation. The MTP with the Wilmink model had higher estimate precision than MTP with the Wood model during the whole of the lactation. MTP with the Wilmink model had the same estimate precisions as the BP method in the early to middle stages of lactation. At the end of the lactation, MTP estimates approximated actual yields the most in comparison with the others. Thus, MTP with the model of Wilmink was successful in attaining high accuracy through the whole lactation period.

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