Application of a statistical prediction method of ship performance by using onboard measurement data - Provision of a guideline for onboard measurement and prediction of ship performance distribution -

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Other Title
  • オンボードデータを用いた統計的船舶性能推定手法の応用　　‐オンボード計測指針取得及び船舶性能分布の予測‐
  • オンボードデータを用いた統計的船舶性能推定手法の応用--オンボード計測指針取得及び船舶性能分布の予測
  • オンボードデータ オ モチイタ トウケイテキ センパク セイノウ スイテイ シュホウ ノ オウヨウ オンボード ケイソク シシン シュトク オヨビ センパク セイノウ ブンプ ノ ヨソク
  • - Provision of a guideline for onboard measurement and prediction of ship performance distribution -
  • －オンボード計測指針取得及び船舶性能分布の予測－

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Abstract

Global warming and other environmental problems are common threads in each industry. In the field of international maritime,for example, the development of low-resistance ship and energy-saving devices, the optimization of shipping schedule, and the development of new energy resources are done. It is important that the performance of a ship in actual seas is predicted accurately in those developments. The authors have proposed in the previous paper a statistical method to estimate the correlation between sea states and ship responses for a short time by using onboard measurement data. The correlation can be represented as the conditional probability density function (PDF) with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) which is one of the multi-variable analyses. We can accurately estimate the statistics of ship responses by using the conditional PDF. The onboard measurement data include various information such as nonlinearities and fluid mutual interferences. Therefore, there is a possibility that the statistical method based on the onboard measurement data will be applied to various purposes other than the estimation of ship responses.The present paper proposes two applications of the statistical method based on the onboard measurement data. The first is the application to the effective onboard measurement, the second is the application to the prediction of ship performance distribution.The ship performance distribution is defined as the probability distribution of ship responses corresponding to the voyage condition.In the first application, an attempt is made to find the onboard data with strong correlation to ship responses by analyzing the result of PCA in detail. If we can find those onboard data, the effective onboard measurement will become possible. In the second application, it is investigated whether the ship responses corresponding to the change of navigation can be estimated by using the correlation between sea states and ship responses obtained from the onboard measurement data. If we can estimate the ship responses corresponding to the change of navigation, the planning of the voyage will be made possible by using the correlation.

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