動態的な空間的マイクロシミュレーションモデルを用いた社会シミュレーション : 京町家の取壊し分析を事例に Social Simulation Using a Dynamic Spatial Microsimulation Model : Analysis of Kyomachiya (Traditional Wooden Townhouse) Demolitions

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 The purpose of this article is to evaluate a social simulation using a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for predicting demolitions of Kyomachiya, which are traditional wooden townhouses and core elements of the historical landscape of Kyoto City, Japan. This model is also applied to estimate the number of Kyomachiya surviving when preservation policies are introduced. The results are summarized as follows: <br> (a) Spatially disaggregated synthetic microdata of Kyomachiya residents were constructed by combining multiple existing datasets in a manner whereby the sums of synthetic microdata agree with those of census datasets. Using synthetic microdata allows us to analyze detailed household demographics and the process of Kyomachiya demolitions at small area and individual levels.<br> (b) Decision-making units such as individuals, households, and Kyomachiya can be modeled in the same way that they exist, behave, and interact with each other in the real world using object-oriented modeling. Another merit is that re-using and extending classes are possible due to object-oriented architecture.<br> (c) The results of simulations show that, during the next 15 years, only 67.3% of Kyomachiya will be preserved and the proportion of the population aged 60 and over will increase from 43.9% to 51.6%. On the other hand, when a comprehensive preservation policy is implemented, those numbers are reduced to 82.5% and 49.2%, respectively. In this manner, a dynamic spatial microsimulation model is useful for understanding the process and cause-and-effect of Kyomachiya demolitions under the status quo. Furthermore, what-if simulations on the basis of Kyomachiya preservation policies help to evaluate which policy is most effective for reducing the number of demolitions.

収録刊行物

  • 地學雜誌

    地學雜誌 118(4), 646-664, 2009-08-25

    公益社団法人 東京地学協会

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各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    10030366050
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AN00322536
  • 本文言語コード
    JPN
  • 資料種別
    ART
  • ISSN
    0022135X
  • NDL 記事登録ID
    10414996
  • NDL 雑誌分類
    ZM41(科学技術--地球科学)
  • NDL 請求記号
    Z15-169
  • データ提供元
    CJP書誌  NDL  J-STAGE 
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