Theoretical Methodology for Quantifying Probability of Capsizing for a Ship in Beam Wind and Waves and Its Numerical Validation

• Maeda Eri

  Osaka University

• Kubo Takumi

  Osaka University

• Umeda Naoya

  Osaka University

Abstract

At the IMO (International Maritime Organization), new generation intact stability criteria are now under development. Here it is essential to establish a physics-based method for quantifying probability of capsizing for intact ships in beam wind and waves. For this purpose, the authors herewith propose an updated methodology for calculating the capsizing probability based on piece-wise linear approximation of restoring arm curve. Although its earlier version had been reported so far, the current version was newly formulated with more rigorous theoretical modelling on roll properties at the moment of outcrossing of roll angle. For validating this new method, a Monte Carlo simulation using a time-domain model was executed with its confidence interval analyses. As a result, it was obtained reasonably good agreement between the new theoretical method and the relevant Monte Carlo simulation. It was also confirmed that the computational time of new theoretical method is much shorter than that of Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, the new theoretical method can be recommended as a reliable and feasible element of new generation intact stability criteria.

Journal

• Journal of the Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers

  Journal of the Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers 15 (0), 227-235, 2012

  The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers

Details

• CRID: 1390282680231960576
• NII Article ID: 10030509873
• NII Book ID: AA12057769
• DOI: 10.2534/jjasnaoe.15.227
• ISSN: 18811760
• ISSN: 18803717
• NDL BIB ID: 023912124
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I023912124
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed