<b>Predicting Hydrographs for an Extremely Large Storm Event Using Tank Models </b><b>Calibrated by Ordinary Storm Events </b>

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  • 通常降雨イベントにより同定されたタンクモデル を用いた豪雨イベントの再現精度
  • ツウジョウ コウウ イベント ニ ヨリ ドウテイ サレタ タンクモデル オ モチイタ ゴウウ イベント ノ サイゲン セイド
  • Predicting Hydrographs for an Extremely Large Storm Event Using Tank Models Calibrated by Ordinary Storm Events

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Abstract

 This study evaluated the applicability of tank models calibrated to an extremely large storm event using ordinary storm events. Rainfall and runoff were observed at three granitic watersheds having different forest recovery conditions: we studied a poor-vegetation watershed, a vegetation-recovered watershed, and a forested watershed. Parameters of the tank models were calibrated using rainfall and runoff data observed for ordinary storm events having total precipitation of less than 150 mm. Then those models were applied to simulate hydrographs for an extremely large storm event (Tokai heavy rain) having total precipitation of 457 mm. In the poor-vegetation watershed and vegetation-recovered watershed,which were characterized by thin soil layers, contributions of surface runoff to the total discharge were large even under ordinary storm events. In such watersheds, the tank models calibrated using the ordinary storm events reproduced hydrographs of the extremely large storm event. However, for the forested watershed, where surface runoff was rarely observed because of thick soil layers, the tank model was inaccurate for the extremely large storm event. The simulated hydrograph produced smaller peaks and gentler responses than the observations. We concluded that a large contribution of surface runoff generated only during an extremely large storm event caused underestimation of peak flows for the forested watershed.

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