気候要因が農作物貿易に与える影響に関する実証分析 : 小麦, 米, トウモロコシのケーススタディ  [in Japanese] Empirical Study on Impact of Climate on Bilateral Trade Model of Agricultural Crops : Case Study on Wheat, Rice and Maize  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

本稿では,主要な農作物である小麦,米,トウモロコシを対象に,重力モデルを二国間の相対貿易に適用し,二国間相対輸出モデルを構築し,パネルデータを用いてパラメータ推計をし,実質GDPや気候条件がこれらの相対貿易に与える影響を分析した。得られた主要な結論は,(1)輸出国及び輸入国の実質GDPの増加は,輸出量を増加させる。特に,米に比べて,小麦とトウモロコシの輸出に対する影響が大きい。(2)輸出国の気温上昇は,小麦の輸出を減少させるが,米とトウモロコシの輸出を増加させる。(3)輸入国の気温上昇は,小麦,米,トウモロコシの輸出(輸入国にとっての輸入)を減らす。(4)(2)と(3)の結果,世界全体で気温が3℃上昇した場合,小麦では,8.91%輸出が減少し,米では,1.13%輸出が増加し,トウモロコシでは,0.15%輸出が減少する。(5)輸出国の降水量増加は,小麦とトウモロコシの輸出を減少させるが,米の輸出を増加させる。輸入国の降水量の増加は,小麦の輸出(輸入国にとっての輸入)を減少させるが,米とトウモロコシの輸出を増加させる。(6)この結果,世界全体で10%の降水量増加(97mm/年)による輸出への影響は,小麦の場合,2.25%輸出減,米の場合,0.84%輸出増,トウモロコシの場合,3.15%の輸出増となる。

The purpose of this article is to explore the determinants of bilateral trade flows of wheat, rice and maize and to investigate how real GDP and climate conditions such as temperature and precipitation affect the trade. The main findings are (1) increase in real GDP of exporting countries and importing countries increase the export. Especially, the impact on the bilateral trade of wheat and maize is larger than that of rice. (2) the temperature rise in the exporting countries decreases the export of wheat but increases the export of rice and maize. (3) the temperature rise in the importing countries decreases the import of wheat, rice and maize. (4) From the results of (2) and (3), the temperature rise by 3°C is likely to decrease the export of wheat by 8.91% and of maize by 0.15% but to increase the export of rice by 1.13%. (5) increase in the precipitation in the exporting countries decreases the export of wheat and maize and decreases the export of rice, while increase in the precipitation in the importing countries decreases the export of wheat but increases the export of rice and maize. (6) As the total effect, increase in the precipitation by 10 % (97 mm/year) is likely to decrease the export of wheat by 2.25% but to increase the export of maize by 3.15% and of rice by 0.84%.

Journal

  • ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

    ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE 26(3), 278-286, 2013-05-31

    SOCIETY OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, JAPAN

References:  20

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    10031174451
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AN10165252
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • Article Type
    REV
  • ISSN
    09150048
  • NDL Article ID
    024774967
  • NDL Call No.
    Z16-1836
  • Data Source
    CJP  NDL  J-STAGE  JASI 
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