A simple method to estimate the potential increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones

• Yamamura Kohji

• Kiritani Keizi

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• simple method to estimate the potential

抄録

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the global mean surface air temperature will increase about 2°C above the 1990 level by 2100. Such an increase in temperature may result in an increase in the number of generations per year of most insects. Several simulation models have been constructed to predict the increase in the number of generations, but these require a great deal of calculation to obtain estimates for many insect species at various locations under various scenarios of global warming. This paper proposes an analytical method to enable a quick estimation. Two assumptions are used : (1) The developmental rate of insects is approximately given by a linear function of temperature (T), with a developmental zero (T₀) and a thermal constant (K). (2) The increase in temperature is approximately even throughout the year. Let m be the current annual mean temperature at a given location, and ΔT the potential increase in temperature under global warming at the location. If the temperature before the ΔT-rise is higher than T₀ in summer and lower than (T₀-ΔT) in winter, the increase in the number of generations per year, which is denoted by ΔN, is approximately given by ΔN≈ΔT[c+ d(m-T₀)]/K, where c and d are constants. The validity of the approximation is checked using the "smoothed daily normals" in Japan obtained as a running mean of 15 successive daily normals where a daily normal is defined as the averaged daily temperatures for 30 years from 1960 to 1990. The estimates are c=204.4 and d=12.46. Using this formula, linear isoclines of ΔN are plotted in a graph of T₀ versus K. By plotting the T₀ and K of various insects in this graph, we can estimate the increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones.

収録刊行物

• Ａｐｐｌｉｅｄ　Ｅｎｔｏｍｏｌｏｇｙ　ａｎｄ　Ｚｏｏｌｏｇｙ

  Ａｐｐｌｉｅｄ　Ｅｎｔｏｍｏｌｏｇｙ　ａｎｄ　Ｚｏｏｌｏｇｙ 33 (2), 289-298, 1998

  日本応用動物昆虫学会

キーワード

• Global warming
• generation number
• prediction formula
• effective temperature
• arthropod community

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390282681219381120
• NII論文ID: 130003760299
• NII論文ID: 110001103233
• NII書誌ID: AA00543238
• DOI: 10.1303/aez.33.289
• ISSN: 1347605X
• ISSN: 00036862
• ISSN: http://id.crossref.org/issn/00036862
• NDL書誌ID: 4483618
• Web Site: http://id.ndl.go.jp/bib/4483618
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I4483618
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/aez1966/33/2/33_2_289/_pdf
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可