買い替えを考慮した新製品拡散モデル  [in Japanese] A NEW PRODUCTS DIFFUSION MODEL WITH CONSIDERATION OF REPEAT PURCHASE  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

買い替えを考慮した新製品拡散の過程を表現する微分方程式の新しいモデルを提案する。本モデルでは、製品の代替が行われた場合に、旧製品の購入者で買い替えにまわる消費者のうち、そのブランドにロイヤリティを持つ消費者が、新たに登場した製品の販売量に与える影響も考慮する。購買層は所得によって推定し、その経時変化もとりいれている。高級乗用軍の新車登録台数の実績データを例として用い、提案したモデルの有効性を確かめる。乗用車の場合、新規性。目新しさが製品拡散強度に大きな影響を与えると考え、製品拡散強度が時間的に減少していく場合も考察する。購買層の変化や買い替え、ブランドロイヤリティを持つ消費者の影響、製品拡散強度の時間変化などを考慮した本モデルによって、実際の販売動向をよく表現できることを示す。また、対象としたブランドのモデルチェンジは、製品の陳腐化を防ぐ働きをしていると解釈できることがわかる。

This paper is concerned with the dynamic behavior of new products diffusing into the market. Generally speaking, the market, progresses through the process such as the entrance of a new product, t,he entrance of the competitive products, and their replacement by the newer ones. Repeat purchase is an important consumer activity even for durable products in the recent market where new products continue to appear within a short period of time. Accordingly, we propose a new mathematical model using differential equations to explain the dynamics of the market in this paper. Introduction of repeat purchase is the main characteristic of this model. The repeat purchase is defined as the phenomenon that previous customers of the product take part in the purchasing activities again after a certain period of time. The time until the previous customers take part in the purchasing activities again is considered as a random variable. The effect of brand loyal users on the repeat purchase is also examined. The number of potential customers is estimated being equal to the number of people who have sufficient income to purchase the product and its time variation is also considered. A numerical analysis using some historical data of automobile registration shows that, the model de-scribed in this paper represents the purchasing behavior very well. The time variation of the products diffusion intensity is also considered in the analysis. The analysis indicates that, the automobile may keep its glory from being obsolete by the model change.

Journal

  • Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan

    Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan 37(1), 12-33, 1994

    The Operations Research Society of Japan

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    110001184387
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • ISSN
    0453-4514
  • Data Source
    NII-ELS  J-STAGE 
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