モンテカルロシミュレーションによる，プロジェクト進行過程の効率的解析方法

• 栗原 謙三

• 西内 信之

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Efficient Analysis Method of Stochastic GERT-Type Network based on Monte Calro Simulation.
• モンテカルロシミュレーション ニ ヨル プロジェクト シンコウ カテイ ノ コウリツテキ カイセキ ホウホウ

抄録

The project, such as new product development, consists of various non deterministic jobs. Therefore, when we plan a new project, we examine the project characteristics in tems of cost, time, result quality and so forth. We often express a project as a stochastic network such as GERT. By this network model, we can analyze model parameter influences that will affect the model characteristics. In case of general GERT networks, theoretical analysis is difficult. Though Monte Calro simulation technique is powerful for the analysis, it has a week point. Namely, we cannot examine characteristic gradients; that is, partial differentials of the characteristic values with respect each network parameter. This paper proposes a new method, which consists of simulation and theoreticaI technique, in order to estimate network characteristic changes and their gradients.

収録刊行物

• 日本機械学会論文集Ｃ編

  日本機械学会論文集Ｃ編 65 (635), 2845-2852, 1999

  一般社団法人 日本機械学会

キーワード

• Management Engineering
• Scheduling
• Production Planning
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• GERT
• Stochastic Network
• Decision Support System
• Project Management

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390001206326884096
• NII論文ID: 110002384297
• NII論文ID: 130004233328
• NII書誌ID: AN00187463
• DOI: 10.1299/kikaic.65.2845
• ISSN: 18848354
• ISSN: 03875024
• NDL書誌ID: 4811041
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I4811041
• Web Site: http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/kikaic1979/65/635/65_635_2845/_pdf
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可