Study on the Tradition and the Prediction of the Expansion of Bamboo Forests

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  • 竹林の動態変化とその拡大予測に関する研究
  • チクリン ノ ドウタイ ヘンカ ト ソノ カクダイ ヨソク ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate how existing bamboo forests expanded and to estimate their expansion. The bamboo forests were followed from 1968 to 2002. The data obtained were collected by using the GIS system at four points in time: 1968, 1978, 1992, and 2002. They were statistically analyzed to examine changes over time. The results showed that before 1992, bamboo forests with increasing area largely outnumbered those with decreasing area, while after 1992, the number of bamboo forests with decreasing area approached that of bamboo forests with increasing area. Then, the relative expansion rate was calculated using a logistic equation. The relative rate reached its peak in 1978, which it maintained until 1992, when the rate started to slow. When the relative expansion was evaluated in relation to land use, the relative rate of bamboo forests surrounding relatively untouched land was higher, while the rate of expansion of bamboo forests surrounding residential areas became slower. This study offers fundamental knowledge helpful in the proper management of bamboo forests.

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