Heavy storm due to the Typhoon T200421 and a stationary front over Mie Prefecture

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  • 2004年台風21号と前線による豪雨災害
  • 2004ネン タイフウ 21ゴウ ト ゼンセン ニ ヨル ゴウウ サイガイ

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Mie Prefecture suffered from water-related disasters due to the Typhoon T200421 on September 29, 2004. Nine persons died, about 70 houses were destroyed by debris flows, slope failures or landslides, and more than 5,000 households were inundated. In this work, first, we analyze meteorological data and conclude that the heavy rainfall were caused by the existence of a stationary front into which the typhoon supplied warm humid air masses, and the orographic conditions over Mie. Secondly, we estimate the return period of t-hour (t=1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours) precipitation at four locations in the prefecture. Finally, disasters due to landslides or debris flows in Miyagawa Village are overviewed and discussed. The above-mentioned meteorological analysis shows a very close relationship between the locations of heavy precipitations during relatively long terms (say 24 hours) and the occurrence of debris flows or landslides.

地球規模水循環システム予測値のスケールダウンと予測の不確実性低減手法の開発

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