Finance and Growth : Causality in the Economic Development of Japan, the U.S.A., and U.K.

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This paper examines the causal directions between financial development and economic growth for prewar and postwar Japan, U.S.A., and U.K. The method used here is the one recently developed by S. Hall, M. Pesaran, and R. Wickens et al. and is what can be called a generalized (or extended) Granger causality test. The paper shows that in Japan and the U.K., the Patrick's hypothesis holds, where the hypothesis implies that in the early stage of development, financial factors typically lead and cause real-side development, while in the later stage, the reversal of causal directions occurs. In the U.S., however, the opposite causal patterns (i.e., in the prewar period, the realside causes the financial-side) are observed. The paper also compares the above results with those derived from traditional Granger causality tests.

source:Economic journal of Chiba University

identifier:11

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