東アジアの地域経済統合と成長・所得分配・貧困削減 [in Japanese] Regional economic integration and its impacts on growth, income distribution and poverty reduction in East Asia [in Japanese]
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Regional economic integration in East Asia has evolved in fact on the basis of market forces but, now in the 21st century, it is institutionally promoted by forming network of free trade agreements (FTAs) between countries in the region. Focusing on the network of FTAs in East Asia or the East Asian Community, this paper quantifies impacts of the institution-led regional economic integration to analyze and evaluate its potential on growth, income distribution and poverty reduction for the region. Analysis of poverty and income distribution is made especially for four developing countries in East Asia : Thailand, Vietnam, China, Indonesia. Methodology is a world CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, which links country or regional CGE models all over the world. Its framework and database are basically the same as GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), but it incorporates household data of income and expenditures for the four countries and extends the model accordingly in framework to combine micro household and macro industries. The impact analysis based on the world CGE model indicates that the East Asian FTAs generally have positive effects on growth, improve income distribution, and result in poverty reduction, though the impacts on China are a little bit exceptional. The results indicate positive potential or long-run positive effects of the East Asian Community, but its requirement of structural adjustment is the actual problem to be overcome in the short-run.
- Forum of international development studies
Forum of international development studies (33), 1-23, 2007-03
Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University