中国のWTO加盟と日中関係の将来 [in Japanese] China's Entry to the WTO and Sino-Japanese Relations in Perspective [in Japanese]
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It may be necessary to consider the meaning of China's entry to the WTO as a trial to connect its rapid economic development with the new tide of international change. The shift from GATT to WTO was pursued in order to move trade liberalization away from "protectionism, " which had been an obstacle to economic development not only in advanced countries but in China, which was fairly well developed. Now, China views swimming with the tide toward liberalized trade as in its national interest, an outgrowth of its transformation in the mid-90s from an unsatisfied nation to a comparatively "satisfied with goods and foods" one. To be sure, China will have to tide over many difficulties from this time forward. Certain areas, such as the financial sector, state-owned undertakings and the judiciary, have not yet been properly prepared for the coming trials from internationalization, although the Chinese economy developed with the introduction of foreign capital and technology. Moreover, agriculture, the automotive industry and many other sectorss should be resolved to suffer a fatal blow within a given period of time. Many leaders and intellectuals anticipate widespread unemployment, which will foment social unrest and even an upset of the principles of nation-building. China's political leaders established the nation's course toward internationalization based on moderation: the "slow and steady policy that might be somewhat related to indigenous development." In the beginning, Deng Xiaoping stimulated this internationalization with advanced science and technology, giving a good scolding to the old-fashioned "revolutionists." Still, it was very difficult to rise to a more advanced stage, that is, the administrative reform of the Chinese Communist Party. It was the leadership of Jiang Zemin that started to transform the character of the party in response to the global upheaval in science and technology. Zhu Rongji shaped the new direction in economics. In 1999, China decided to enter the WTO within three years. At that time, most WTO members warmly received the Chinese proposal to enter the international liberal organization. It was said that "the world economy is now large enough and open enough to absorb the growth of China's trade." However, China was strategic and clever enough to make the best of the timing. In other words, "the WTO needs China as much as China needs the WTO." China placed emphasis, at the same time, on attempts to reform the WTO's rules and organization from the standpoint of developing countries. Though some developing nations in Asia began taking precautions against the coming influence of China, most of them seemed to fall in line with China. So the policy to enter the WTO would seem to be successful and fruitful for China both economically and politically. On the Japanese side, everyone believed the entry of China would be fruitful for the Japanese economy. But politically, the attitude of the leaders seemed a little more ambiguous. Certainly, almost all Japanese people warmly welcomed China's decision to enter the WTO. Now, Japan is striving to extend its trade and investment in China, although its activities are a little late compared with those of Western countries, for well-documented political reasons. In international rivalries, Japan cannot help but recognize the keen disadvantages that originated from the tragic history of the Sino-Japanese War. It may be extremely difficult to work through these historical problems in a short time because of sentiments on both sides that can be expressed as some new type of nationalism. So the leaders of the Japanese government have put everything in charge of business enterprises without setting definite policies toward China. What the Japanese government might be able to do is limited to creating active strategies that mutually complement China's distinct strategies. Within 10 years of this strategic period, Chinese influence on East Asia will be remarkably accelerated by its entry to the WTO. Then, no country, not even Japan, will be able to act arbitrarily without the consent or understanding of China. Still, China's power will not be strong enough to promote political leadership in East Asia because of the presence of Japan and the United States. The only realistic way forward for both Japan and China would be to maintain an equal partnership and cultivate various methods of mutual support extending over a long period of time.
- Shimane journal of North East Asian research
Shimane journal of North East Asian research (4), 1-19, 2002-10
The University of Shimane