生活時間量表の動態的分析 A Dynamic Analysis of Time Fund Data : A New Approach to Aging Society
This paper attempts to show a dynamic analysis of time fund data. Time fund data are obtained by multiplying the average hours of activity and its size of population. We present not only our new analytical idea, but also apply it to Japanese time funds data of every five years from 1976 to 2001 to try fact findings. The aged are people mostly exiting from labor market, and devote much of their time to the primary activities and the tertiary activities instead of the secondary activities. If the aged are increasing in their number, the relative size of the primary and secondary activities is supposed to expand in our society. We call this (1) 'aging effect'. The amount of time funds is increasing in society, as its population is growing. This is causing the size of time funds of the primary, secondary, and tertiary activities at the same time. We call this impact (2) 'growth effect'. It is further expected that people are changing their preferences of activities in the long run. This seems to cause the changing ratio of activities in society as a whole. We call this (3) 'act-shift effect'. These three effects are the basic components of our dynamic analysis of time funds data. Through our dynamic analysis, we could obtain a series of fact-findings concerning our structural changes of time funds. We can show, for example, that the aging effect is contributing to increasing the amounts of primary activities, passive leisure activity, and medical examination, while it is decreasing those of paid work. Through our fact findings, we can forecast where our society is going. We should have extracted some policy implications from our fact-findings. But, in this paper, our focus has been on explaining our analytical ideas and obtaing fact-findings.
総合政策論叢 (10), 31-53, 2005-12