Predictability of the Downward Migration of the Northern Annular Mode : A Case Study for January 2003

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Author(s)

Abstract

The dynamics and predictability of a downward migration event of the negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM) anomaly following a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) occurring in January 2003 are examined using the operational 1-month ensemble forecast data set provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is found that the predictable period of the tropospheric negative NAM anomaly is at most 6 days, which is much shorter than that of the precedent SSW event. The tropospheric NAM anomaly is caused by the E-P flux convergence associated with zonal wavenumber 2 planetary waves at the tropopause level, of which propagating property is affected by the zonal-mean zonal wind there. Our results suggest that even large stratospheric circulation changes associated with the SSW event have only limited influence on the predictability of the tropospheric circulation.

Journal

  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II 85(6), 861-870, 2007-12-25

    Meteorological Society of Japan

References:  10

Cited by:  2

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    110006531824
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AA00702524
  • Text Lang
    ENG
  • Article Type
    Journal Article
  • ISSN
    00261165
  • NDL Article ID
    9317744
  • NDL Source Classification
    ZM43(科学技術--地球科学--気象)
  • NDL Call No.
    Z54-J645
  • Data Source
    CJP  CJPref  NDL  NII-ELS  J-STAGE  NDL-Digital 
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