Predictability of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Inferred from Ensemble Forecast Data : Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 Winters

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Abstract

The predictability of a minor warming and the subsequent major warming in the winter of 2003/04 is examined in comparison with that of the major warming without preceding minor warmings in December 2001 by the use of operational ensemble 1-month forecast data produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the case of the major warming in December 2001 caused by amplified zonal wavenumber 1 planetary waves, the predictable period based on zonal mean temperatures in the polar stratosphere is estimated to be at least 16 days, while the warmings in the winter of 2003/04 are predictable at most 9 days in advance. Such relatively reduced predictability for the latter warmings is considered due to the rather complicated time evolution of the warming episodes with a significant contribution of smallerscale planetary waves during the period prior to the warmings.

Journal

  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

    Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II 85(6), 919-925, 2007-12-25

    Meteorological Society of Japan

References:  14

Keywords

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    110006531830
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AA00702524
  • Text Lang
    ENG
  • Article Type
    NOT
  • ISSN
    00261165
  • NDL Article ID
    9317780
  • NDL Source Classification
    ZM43(科学技術--地球科学--気象)
  • NDL Call No.
    Z54-J645
  • Data Source
    CJP  NDL  NII-ELS  J-STAGE  NDL-Digital 
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