An East Asian Link Model and Simulation Analysis

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  • East Asian Link Model and Simulation Analysis

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In this paper we construted an East Asis econometric link model with forward looking variables and performed several simulations to analzy mainly how the change in the foreign exchange regime and FTA work the model consists of 11 countries including China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the US and several other Asis countries. Each country model has about 40-50 equations. The largest part of the model involves bi-lateral trade functions, which are necessarily required to link nations. In addition, it treats the capital flow as a part of investment functions. In this study, it became clear that appreciation of yen will cause the large reduction of export and increase in expansion of Asian economies. Appreciation of yuan also leads expansion on the economy of other countries as well, however, China has much more effects on the Asian countries than Japan. According to the analysis of FTA, intra trade within ASEAN and China will grow greatly by concluding agreements. However, the effects will remain rather small outside the area, and will be limited to some extent. Fiscal expansion of Japan has a great influence on the other Asian countries, on the contrary, that of China tends to be restricted within China.

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KJ00004993475

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