Impact of Global Warming on Yield Fluctuation in Rice in the Northern Part of Japan

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  • 地球温暖化が北日本のイネの収量変動に及ぼす影響
  • 収量予測・情報処理・環境 地球温暖化が北日本のイネの収量変動に及ぼす影響
  • シュウリョウ ヨソク ジョウホウ ショリ カンキョウ チキュウ オンダンカ ガ キタニホン ノ イネ ノ シュウリョウ ヘンドウ ニ オヨボス エイキョウ

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Abstract

Accurate prediction of rice yield under the future climate is a critical factor for future food security. I evaluated the impact of global warming on rice yield fluctuation especially in cool climates using (1) air temperature trend, (2) rice yield trend and (3) a simple model. Annual averaged air temperature has been rising at a rate of 0.2°C per 10 years, but the magnitude differed with the season. The increase in air temperature in summer tended to be slight especially in the northern part of Japan. Yield of rice cultivar, Sasanishiki grown under identical management practices, was increasing at a rate of 16 g m-2 per 10 years, but yearly fluctuation tended to increase in recent years. The impact of further global warming on the cooling-degree day, that is, the chance of coldness in the panicle formation stage, was estimated under two climate scenarios. Under scenario 1 (air temperature rises uniformly over the season), the chance of coldness in the panicle formation stage was reduced similar to previous predictions, but under scenario 2 (air temperature rises only in spring), the change was expected to increase by 16% per 1°C rise. The trend of recent temperature increase in spring may increase the risk for cold damage in rice in the northern part of Japan, suggesting the necessarily of selecting suitable varieties and planting season.

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