新聞の世論調査手法の変遷(<特集>世論と世論調査) Transition of procedure of public opinion polls by newspaper organizations(public opinion and public opinion polls)
Japanese public opinion polls have introduced by GHQ after WWII, and they also have improved the quality much better than before by the cooperation with news organizations and mathematicians. Due to the start of election situation survey by Asahi newspaper at The House of Representatives election in 1958, public opinion functioned much important rolls with the election news by news organizations. For long time, search procedures are mainly examined by visiting each object person by examiners, however, since 1980s, each news organization attempted to use public opinion polls by telephone. After the 21 century, RDD (Random Digit Dialing) with random dialing by computers has spread. It is lower the costs and it is also easier to get survey result promptly, and then, 'Cabinet support rate' reported by more than ten news organizations each month has come and gone. However, due to the spread of cell phones, etc., this search procedure showed some limitations. Together with this fact, public opinion polls are facing huge crisis. About the issues in the society, survey object persons themselves do not form their own opinions and also do not think about the resolution, and they answer promptly to the public opinion polls. And then, the answer was easily induced by the amplification which was introduced during the making of questioners by news organizations. Following these result, we do not have to undervalue public opinion polls. They have important roles as to 'measure' the public opinions and to keep polishing fair examinations.
マス・コミュニケーション研究 77(0), 39-58, 2010