失業率と犯罪発生率の関係 (課題研究 貧困と犯罪・非行):時系列および都道府県別パネル分析  [in Japanese] The Relationship between Unemployment and Crime (<Special Issue>Poverty, Crime, and Delinquency):Evidence from Time-series Data and Prefectural Panel Data  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

本稿では,失業率が犯罪の発生率に与える影響を,1976年から2008年の時系列データおよび,1975年から2005年までの5年毎の都道府県別パネルデータを用いて実証的に分析する.時系列データを用いた犯罪の発生率は,失業率が上昇すると上昇し,人口あたり警察官数が増えると減る.しかしながらこの関係は犯罪種別で異なる.県別パネルデータを用いた分析でも類似の傾向が確認されるが,失業率の上昇よりも貧困率の上昇が犯罪発生率を高める影響が大きいことが分かる.両データを用いた分析により,犯罪の発生率が,犯罪の機会費用と密接な関係をもつ労働市場の状況や所得状況,警察などの犯罪抑止力と整合的な関係にあることが示された.

This paper examines the effect of unemployment rates on crime rates, using two types of Japanese data: time-series data from 1976 to 2008 and prefectural panel data from 1975 to 2005. An analysis using time-series data shows that an increase in unemployment rates raises crime rates, while the number of police officers decreases crime rates. It should be noted, however, that the effects are different among the various types of crime. An analysis using prefectural panel data shows similar results; however, the increase in poverty rates raises crime rates more than the increase in unemployment. Our empirical evidence also suggests that occurrences of crime are attributed to both labor market conditions related to the opportunity cost of crime, and the number of policies related to crime deterrent, as the theory of crime suggests.

Journal

  • Japanese Journal of Sociological Criminology

    Japanese Journal of Sociological Criminology 35(0), 54-71, 2010

    Japanese Association of Sociological Criminology

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    110007817639
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AN00206207
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • Article Type
    特集
  • ISSN
    0386-460X
  • NDL Article ID
    10886044
  • NDL Source Classification
    ZA31(政治・法律・行政--刑法・刑事政策)
  • NDL Call No.
    Z2-611
  • Data Source
    NDL  NII-ELS  J-STAGE 
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