The Long-run Relationships between Japanese Unemployment Rates and Juvenile Homicide Rates in 1974-2006

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  • 少年の殺人事件発生率と完全失業率の長期的関連
  • 少年の殺人事件発生率と完全失業率の長期的関連--日本における1974年から2006年までの時系列データの実証分析
  • ショウネン ノ サツジン ジケン ハッセイリツ ト カンゼン シツギョウリツ ノ チョウキテキ カンレン ニホン ニ オケル 1974ネン カラ 2006ネン マデ ノ ジケイレツ データ ノ ジッショウ ブンセキ
  • 日本における1974年から2006年までの時系列データの実証分析

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Abstract

The effect of unemployment on Japanese juvenile homicide rates in the period from the 1973 oil crisis to 2006, the latest year the data were available, is not well-understood. It should be noted, however, that Japanese society went through momentous changes in this period. Hence the question: Did a stable relationship (the so-called "cointegration") between the Japanese unemployment rate and the juvenile homicide rate exist for a period of time, but then switch to a new "long-term" relationship? If such trend/regime shift were to exist, its timing has to be treated as unknown. Employing Gregory and Hansen's (1996a, 1996b) residual-based tests for cointegration to permit such trend/regime shifts, we found a stable long-term relationship between the unemployment rate and the homicide rate for both the 16-17 year-old juvenile group and the 18-19 year-old juvenile group, but did not find any structural changes. These results demonstrated that unemployment rates and homicide rates increase consistently during the period. We discuss the implications of these results and the probability of structural changes.

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