ウェザールーティングのための東西指数の予測手法の研究

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タイトル別名
  • A Study on Prediction Method of Zonal Index for Weather Routing
  • ウェザールーティング ノ タメ ノ トウザイ シスウ ノ ヨソク シュホウ ノ ケンキュウ

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Effectiveness of the result of weather routine depends upon the accuracy of forecasting sea conditions. However, the latest weather the forecasting is restricted to 8 days ahead prediction in Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, Dr. Suda emphasized on the importance of the concept of zonal index. To solve this problem, the authors propose the application of seasonal adjustment model and its estimation method by Kalman filter for predicting the evolution of the zonal index. The accuracy of the predicted zonal index is estimated by comparing the predicted data with the data obtained from the weather analysis issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA). The best model selected in various model's parameters gives accuracy of 76%. The correlation between the zonal index and wave distribution is also investigated by using weather analysis data of the JMA, and the authors make wave distribution patterns from the predicted zonal index. Finally, the authors describe the efficiency of the proposed predicting method on ship's weather routing, by voyages simulation for a container ship.

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