インフルエンザ流行の数理モデルに関する検討
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- 中溝 知樹
- 平成23年度専門課程2 生物統計分野
書誌事項
- タイトル別名
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- An epidemic model of seasonal influenza
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Although the SIR model is useful for describing the pandemics of influenza, it is inappropriate for describing the epidemics of seasonal influenza, in which several subtypes circulate concurrently. Therefore, we aimed to build a mathematical model that describes the epidemics of seasonal influenza. We extended the conventional SIR model by dividing the population in terms of the three subtypes of influenza: type A H1N1, type A H3N2, and type B. In addition, we incorporated the viral interference and time-lags of the onset among the subtypes. In this way, we built a model that can predict the concurrent epidemics of the subtypes by numerical calculation using surveillance data at the initial phase of the seasons. We applied the model to the epidemics of seasonal influenza in Japan from 2002 through 2008. Assuming moderate viral interference, the model predicted the real epidemics reasonably. Because the model is able to predict the epidemic at the initial phase of a season, it may be valuable in public health.
収録刊行物
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- 保健医療科学
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保健医療科学 61 488-489, 2012-10
国立保健医療科学院
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1573950402684069632
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- NII論文ID
- 110009575822
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- NII書誌ID
- AA11751510
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- ISSN
- 13476459
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- データソース種別
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