Geographic Variation in Tourism Demand by Historical Landscape Conservation in Terms of the Contingent Behavior of Potential Tourists to Kyoto

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  • 潜在的な観光客の仮想行動に着目した歴史的景観の保全による観光需要の地理的変動 : 京都市における事例分析
  • センザイテキ ナ カンコウキャク ノ カソウ コウドウ ニ チャクモク シタ レキシテキ ケイカン ノ ホゼン ニ ヨル カンコウ ジュヨウ ノ チリテキ ヘンドウ : キョウトシ ニ オケル ジレイ ブンセキ

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Abstract

This paper aims to assess the renovation and conservation policy pertaining to historical structures in Kyoto. It adopts a tourism demand estimation approach in terms of the contingent behavior of potential tourists to the ancient capital of Kyoto, one of the most popular tourist cities in Japan. Specifically, the regional spillover effects of the policy are assessed on the basis of regional differences in visit frequency to Kyoto before and after the implementation of the policy. This follows the assumption that historical structures in Kyoto are renovated and conserved on the basis of the policy. The analytical data comprises contingent behavior data, which was collected through the online questionnaire survey on the Yahoo! Research website. Respondents were aged 20 or above (supplied by Yahoo! Japan Corporation). The models of visit frequency were estimated using the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model with the random intercept where the dependent variable was visit frequency and the independent variables were residence region, age, sex, household size, and household income. The results of the modeling, with all above variables controlled, shows that the visit frequency is highest in the Kinki region, from where, compared to other regions in Japan, Kyoto can be reached easily; the ease of travel tends to decline progressively with the increase in distance from Kyoto. The renovation and conservation policy of historical structures is also estimated to increase the number of tourists from across the nation to Kyoto, particularly in the Kinki region, which is close to Kyoto and contains one of the most densely populated areas in Japan, Keihanshin Metropolitan Area. However, the estimated model shows that the increase in the visit frequency per unit of population is relatively high in areas distant from Kyoto (e.g., Kyushu, Hokkaido, and Tohoku region).

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