Two patterns of current account reversal : shift-type and V-shaped

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In current account reversal, the current account balance shrinks its deficit rapidly or jumps to a surplus from being in a large deficit. The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the movements of macroeconomic variables before and after current account reversals and to extract some stable relationships between those variables, using the annual data of 23 developed countries from 1975 to 2007. We found that current account reversal episodes in developed economies can be classified into either a "shift-type" or a "V-shaped" reversal, depending on the movements of the current account balances. We also found marked differences in the adjustment of macroeconomic variables. Our classification of two types of current account reversal has many points in common with the classification by Croke et al. (2005), expansion and contraction. We believe, however, that our classification is superior in terms of generality.

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  • 社会科学

    社会科学 43 (2), 47-77, 2013-08-31

    同志社大学人文科学研究所

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