当社経験データにおける要介護リスクの検討  [in Japanese] Analysis of Risk of Need for Long-Term Care Based on Our Company's Experience  [in Japanese]

Author(s)

Abstract

民間介護保険の危険選択の指標となり得る要介護リスク研究はほとんどなく,死亡リスクのアナロジーからリスク評価体系を組み立てているケースも多いと思われる。当社の介護保険の被保健者集団を,Cox比例ハザードモデルを用い,介護保障と死亡保障を比較して解析した。死亡リスクでは,喫煙習慣,体格(BMI),尿蛋白,尿糖,血圧,肝機能(AST),肝機能(ALT),白血球数,血小板数,胸部X線撮影の10因子が,要介護リスクでは,喫煙習慣,体格(BMI),血圧の3つのみが,有意なリスク因子として抽出された。文献的には,喫煙習慣,体格(BMI),血圧は,必ずしもリスク因子とはなっていなかった。被保険者集団は若年層に偏っているが,参照文献の多くは高齢層を対象としていることが,相違の主因と考えられた。支払原因分析も加味すると若年者では,脳卒中(脳血管疾患)が要介護リスクの危険選択の主眼となると思われる。

Of the existing studies on the risk of need for long-term care, few may serve as indicators for risk selection in private care insurance. In many cases, the risk is systematically assessed in the same manner as the risk of mortality. In this study, we analyzed a group of our care insurance policyholders using the Cox proportional hazards model to compare between long-term care protection and death protection. With regard to the risk of mortality, 10 significant risk factors were identified, namely smoking habit, body mass index (BMI), proteinuria, glycosuria, blood pressure, liver function (AST), liver function (ALT), white blood cell count, platelet count, and chest X-ray, while only three significant factors were identified for the risk of need for long-term care, namely smoking habit, BMI, and blood pressure. A literature survey indicated that smoking habit, BMI, and blood pressure are not necessarily confirmed as risk factors. The difference may be primarily because our policyholder group mostly comprises younger people, whereas many references cover older people. Taking into account an analysis of the causes of benefit payments, stroke may be considered as the primary focus of risk selection in younger people with regard to the risk of need for long-term care.

Journal

  • The journal of the Association of Life Insurance Medicine of Japan

    The journal of the Association of Life Insurance Medicine of Japan 111(2), 154-172, 2013-06-28

    The Association of Insuramce Medicine of Japan

References:  66

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    110009615541
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AN00197853
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • Article Type
    ART
  • ISSN
    0301262X
  • NDL Article ID
    024737236
  • NDL Call No.
    Z19-675
  • Data Source
    CJP  NDL  NII-ELS 
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