Economic Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions : An Analysis Using a Cumulative Causation Model

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  • 経済成長と温室効果ガス排出の関係 : 累積的因果連関モデルによる分析
  • ケイザイ セイチョウ ト オンシツ コウカ ガス ハイシュツ ノ カンケイ : ルイセキテキ インガ レンカン モデル ニ ヨル ブンセキ

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Abstract

A majority of economic theories, including that of Marx, have focused on the production and reproduction of wealth, productive capacity, and labour productivity. Attempts to analyse the destructive power of human activities on the ecosystem began in the mid-twentieth century. It is now widely recognized that the production of wealth relates to the destruction of the ecosystem today; however, theoretical and quantitative analyses concerning this theme are few, and we cannot find an established theory. The first purpose of this paper is to clarify 'stylised facts' by a quantitative analysis of the relationship between GHG emission and economic growth in advanced countries since the 1990s. The important fact is that the reduction of GHG emissions is compatible with economic growth under certain institutional conditions. The second purpose of this paper is to analyse the stylised facts using a cumulative causation model. In the case that the reduction of GHG emissions is compatible with economic growth, a partial dilemma exists between them. Therefore, whether a country gives priority to the reduction of GHG emissions or to economic growth becomes a political choice. Section II critically examines existing opinions. Intuitively, the higher the economic growth rate is, the higher the rate at which GHG emissions increase. Pessimistic opinions that economic growth is not compatible with the reduction of GHG emissions are based on this intuition. Moreover, this intuition sometimes leads to the extreme opinion that zero or negative economic growth is necessary to reduce GHG emissions. We show that these opinions are faulty owing to inadequate processing of data. Section III explains the results of a panel data analysis and a time series data analysis with regard to the relationship between the decreasing rate of emission intensity and economic growth rates in eighteen advanced countries. There is a positive correlation between the economic growth rate and the decreasing rate of emission intensity since the 1990s. Moreover, the introduction of an environment tax increases the decreasing rate of emission intensity. Section IV shows that there is trade-off between the effects of dynamic increasing returns on labour inputs and GHG emissions. The decreasing rate of emission intensity is equal to the increase rate of the real GDP per unit of GHG. Therefore, a decrease in emission intensity can be considered to be an increase of returns on GHG emissions. We measure also the Verdoon coefficients that show the strength of dynamic increasing returns on labour inputs. These two dynamic increasing returns have a trade-off relationship. In other words, the dynamic increasing returns on labour inputs are weak in countries where the dynamic increasing returns on GHG emissions are strong. Most of these countries introduced environment taxes in the 1990s. Section V explains the manner in which the transformation of innovation to reduce GHG emissions affects growth regime using a cumulative causation model. The decreasing rate of emission intensity represents the change in the broadly-defined labour productivity considering destructibility of the ecosystem. We call this 'broadly-defined productivity growth'. We examine influences of the transformation of innovation on the demand regime, the productivity regime and the broadly defined productivity regime. Thus, we show the structural reason why economic growth and labour productivity growth were partially sacrificed in countries that promoted the transformation to economy innovations by the introduction of environment taxes.

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