書誌事項
- タイトル別名
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- 3108 Scenario Analysis of the Electricity Demand of the Residential Sector Based on the Diffusion of Energy-saving and -generating Products
抄録
A variety of energy-saving and -generating products, such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, are being diffused to reduce electricity demand in residential sectors. When one attempts to understand changes in electricity demand in the future, the problem is the existence of numerous unpredictable factors (e.g., peoples' lifestyle and national energy policy) associated with the diffusion of such products. This paper takes a scenario approach to analyzing the impacts of the product diffusion on residential electricty demand under different social circumstances. For the analysis, two simulation models are employed; i.e., (i) a model to estimate the diffusion of products based on consumers' preferences and (ii) a model to estimate electricity demand in residential sectors given the resulting product diffusion. A case study of scenario analysis of the electricity demand in the residential sector in Toyonaka City, Osaka, Japan in 2030 is carried out. The results reveal that the net electricity demand in the city in 2030 is decreased 20-39% from the 2012 level depending on scenarios, where demographic changes and PV diffusion are among critical factors.
収録刊行物
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- 設計工学・システム部門講演会講演論文集
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設計工学・システム部門講演会講演論文集 2014.24 (0), _3108-1_-_3108-10_, 2014
一般社団法人 日本機械学会
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390282680869806208
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- NII論文ID
- 110009938900
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- ISSN
- 24243078
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- 本文言語コード
- ja
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- データソース種別
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- JaLC
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- CiNii Articles
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- 抄録ライセンスフラグ
- 使用不可