3109 グループによるバックキャスト型シナリオ作成支援手法の提案(OS7-3 タイムアクシスデザイン,OS7 ライフサイクル設計とサービス工学)

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  • 3109 Proposal of a Backcasting Scenario Development method by a group

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For strategic planning and policy making toward sustainable society, to envision normative future of society is helpful. For this task, future scenario development in backcasting manner is a hopeful approach. In backcasting scenario development, several targeted future visions and pathways between the future and the present is drawn. The future visions of sustainable society are different among the stakeholders in the society. In order to support such future scenarios about sustainable society in backcasting manner, we propose a scenario development support method by reflecting opinion of a group of the stakeholders. We updated the backcasting method proposed in the previous study, which uses a logic tree to support imagining the future in backward direction, from the future to the present. In this study, we proposed a support method to construct several different future visions by conducting questionnaire about the elements of the logic tree to the stakeholders. We also proposed indexes to reflect the result of questionnaire to the future visions. As a case study, we developed a scenario about the sustainable future visions of Japanese society. We conducted a questionnaire to the graduate students and researchers and constructed four different future visions reflecting the group's opinion.

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