地震時における大規模ライフライン系のファジィ信頼性解析 [in Japanese] SEISMIC RELIABILITY ANALYSES OF LARGE SCALE LIFELINE NETWORK USING FUZZY SET THEORY [in Japanese]
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To evaluate uncertainty of network components requires a large and longterm statistical survey.We, therefore, attempt to use the fuzzy sets theory to assess the seismic reliability of large scale lifeline networks and taking into account uncertainty of failure probability of the components. We developed an algorithm which has only polynomial complexity to enumerate paths in the network.Using this algorithm we have calculated the fuzzy membership function of seismic reliabiligy of a given networks. The uncertainty of the attenuation law, response velocity value per unit seismic coefficient and natural period of ground are defined by using normal convex fuzzy membership functions. A check of applicability of our new method is made by hypothetical seismic reliability analysis of a gas supply network composed of 387 nodes and 391 links.
京都大学防災研究所年報 (36B-2), p21-36, 1993-04