A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission incorporating drug resistance: Simulations of the Solomon Islands situation

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  • クロロキシン薬剤耐性に関する熱帯熱マラリア数理モデル解析 ―ソロモン諸島を対象としたシミュレーション
  • クロロキン ヤクザイ タイセイ ニ カンスル ネッタイ ネツ マラリア スウリ モデル カイセキ ソロモン ショトウ オ タイショウ ト シタ シミュレーション

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Abstract

The Solomon Islands are known as a high endemic region of malaria. The resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to chloroquine has been confirmed since 1980 in the Solomon Islands, and the spread of chloroquine resistance is a big hurdle to malaria control. We have constructured the model for P. falciparum making allowance of chloroquine resistance. We distinguish the infection of resistance strains from that of sensitive strains in both the human and the vector populations. Since the overall parasite rate and the parasite rate of gametocytes for P.　falciparum are strongly dependent on age, the human population is divided into 7 age groups in the model. The epidemiological parameters are determined by malariological survey in northeastern Guadalcanal (Ishii et al.) and the sporozoite rate in vector population is assumed as 0.1% based on the entomological study (Harada et al.) Our study aims at estimating the effect of mass drug administration under the presence of drug-resistance and also analyzing the escalation of drug-resistance through the transmission model for P. falciparum which can deal with chloroquine resistance.

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