On the Influence of Tropical Intraseseasonal Oscillation on the Predictability of PNA pattern

• MUKOUGAWA, Hitoshi

• HAYASHI, Mariko

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 熱帯季節内振動がPNAパターンの予測可能性に及ぼす影響

Abstract

The predictability of the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, which is one of the most dominantextratropical teleconnection patterns in the boreal winter, is examined using ensemble hindcast experimentsconducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency during 10 years from 1992 to 2001. Since Mori andWatanabe (2008) proposed a triggering mechanism of the PNA pattern by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) in the tropics, we examine the dependence of the predictability of the PNA pattern on the phase andthe activity of the MJO. It is found that the prediction error of the PNA pattern becomes large when theactive convective region associated with the MJO resides over the Indian Ocean or the Maritime Continent atthe initial time of forecast.

Journal

• Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B

  Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B 52 (B), 413-420, 2009-06-01

  京都大学防災研究所

Keywords

• MJO
• 予測可能性
• PNA pattern
• predictability
• quasi-stationary Rossby wave

Details

• CRID: 1050282676671391616
• NII Article ID: 120002515055
• NII Book ID: AN00027784
• ISSN: 0386412X
• HANDLE: 2433/129305
• Text Lang: ja
• Article Type: departmental bulletin paper
• Data Source:
  • IRDB
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN