ケインズとナイトと同時代人たち : 「想定外」を想定する

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  • ケインズ ト ナイト ト ドウジ ダイニン タチ : 「 ソウテイ ガイ 」 オ ソウテイ スル
  • ケインズ ト ナイト ト ドウジダイジン タチ ソウテイガイ オ ソウテイ スル
  • J.M. Keynes, F.H. Knight and their Contemporaries : Thinking of the Unthinkable

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Abstract

type:Departmental Bulletin Paper

As the saying goes, we can learn new lessonsfrom old teachings. This paper aims to givecritical assessment of J. M. Keynes (1883-1946)and F. H. Knight (1885-1972), two great economistson probability and uncertainty. It is quiteremarkable to see that there are many contemporariesof outstanding achievement in theKeynes-Knight era: A. Marshall (1842-1924),H. Poincaré (1854-1912), M. Weber (1864-1920), Soseki Natsume (1867-1916), TorahikoTerada (1878-1935), and A. Einstein (1879-1955). While these men are somewhat differentin personality and research field, there is onething in common: They are all deep thinkersof unthinkable phenomena such as bubbles,chance, chaos, complexity, crisis, earthquakes,hazards, and sufferings.In the light of the history of economicthought, we understand that some economistsmay be micro-oriented or macro-orientedwhereas others may be concerned with certaintyor uncertainty. We find it quite convenientto classify all the economists from the time ofAdam Smith to the present day into the followingfour groups. They are:(1)micro andcertainty, (2)macro and certainty, (3)macro anduncertainty, and (4)micro and uncertainty. Inmy opinion, the first group is represented by L.W. McKenzie, an authority in general equilibriumtheory and incidentally my mentor atRochester; and the second one by Karl Marx,the founder of the Marxian school. The thirdgroup is led by J. M. Keynes, perhaps the greatesteconomist of the 20th century and theoriginator of the Keynesian school; and thefourth one by F.H. Knight, the grandfather ofthe original Chicago school.According to Torahiko Terada, a famous scientistand essayist, natural disasters will returnwhen they are out of people’s memory. Likewise,academic geniuses will return before oldheroes are out of our scene. At the beginningof the 21st century, it is quite regrettable thatneither Keynes nor Knight is in sight. We needa Keynes or a Knight in order to establish anew, synthetic social science, thus combiningeconomics, psychology, history, biology, physics,and other related fields.

identifier:彦根論叢, 第400号, pp. 82-105

identifier:The Hikone Ronso, No.400, pp. 82-105

Journal

  • 彦根論叢

    彦根論叢 第400号 82-105, 2014-06

    滋賀大学経済学会

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