輸入自由化後の中国大豆需給変化とその将来の見通し : 大豆関連政策の問題点と今後の改善方向  [in Japanese] Changes after Import Liberalization and the Future of China's Soybean Market  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

急速な経済成長を背景に大豆関連食品に対する国民の需要は急増し、その需要を満たすための輸入増加は傾向として理解できる。しかし問題はなぜこれほど急速に増加したのかと年間7000万tの大豆がいったい何処で何のために消費されているのか、などである。また13億の人口を有し、現に既に世界の大豆貿易量の6割弱を輸入しているが、今後、経済成長が続ければ、中国の大豆輸入はどこまで増えていくのかも注目すべき問題である。一方、中国国内の大豆生産は、輸入自由化後もあまり減少せず、ほぼ安定を維持していた。しかしここ数年間は主産地の東北3省(黒竜江、吉林、遼寧)の大豆作付面積も減少し始め、その結果、中国全体の大豆生産も減少傾向を示した。それらの変化の背後に何があっただろうか。そして、近年の生産減少は本格的な減少の始まりだろうか。これらの問題は、中国自身にとって非常に重要な問題だが、世界にとっても目を離せない関心事である。今後、中国の大豆需給動向、特に国内生産の変化は政府の生産支援策に強く左右される面がある。大豆輸入自由化実施後の十数年間、中国政府がどういう大豆政策をとってきたのか。それを振り返しながら、同政策の問題点と今後、政府が取るべき対策の方向性についても考えていきたい。

Since 1996, China's soybean import has significantly increased. In this paper, we first present the background and economic mechanism for the substantial increase of soybean import; and then discuss future Chinese soybean import trends, as well as government policy on soybean's production in the country. The findings of our research are as follows: (1). Since 1996, the consumption of edible oil and animal products, such as pork, chicken, eggs, fish, and dairy products has sharply increased. Prompted by the rapid increase in consumption of these Western-style foods, the demand for oil crushing, as well as the total demand of soybeans has also significantly increased. However, with the Chinese per capita consumptions of edible oil and animal products getting closer to that of the Japanese, and the income elasticity for Western-style foods largely declining, the demand for soybean is likely to decelerate considerably in the near future. (2). However, soybean production became sluggish after 1996, and has been decreasing progressively in recent years. The sluggish and the significant decrease in soybean production are mainly due to its low profitability, which is the result of low price and slow improvement in yields, when compared with other competing crops. (3). If the economic growth continues in China, the price competitiveness of soybean, as well as rape seeds will continue to decline in the future. If left alone, further production decline is inevitable. To avoid this situation, the Chinese government should first shift the pivot foot from promoting high oil soybean production to encouraging no GM, traditional high protein soybean production; secondly revise the current temporary stockpiling purchase scheme, and introduce a fixed payment program for these crops.

Journal

  • 生物資源経済研究

    生物資源経済研究 (19), 33-58, 2014

    京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    120005465701
  • NII NACSIS-CAT ID (NCID)
    AN10529053
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • Article Type
    journal article
  • Journal Type
    大学紀要
  • ISSN
    1341-8947
  • NDL Article ID
    025376999
  • NDL Call No.
    Z18-B433
  • Data Source
    NDL  IR  JASI 
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