気象庁1ヶ月アンサンブル予報を用いた冬季成層圏北極点温度の予測可能性に関する解析 [in Japanese] Analysis on the Predictability of Wintertime Stratospheric North-Pole Temperature Using the JMA 1-month Ensemble Forecast [in Japanese]
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Predictability characteristics of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex are examined through the systematic error and the ensemble spread of the predicted north polar temperature by the operational 1-month ensemble forecast of the Japan Meteorological Agency during 7 winters. It is revealed that in early winter, the systematic error has significantly large positive values due to the underestimation of the equatorward propagation of planetary waves in the stratosphere. The estimated predictable period based on the ensemble spread according to Lorenz (1982) attains a maximum in early winter (more than 30 days) and gradually decreases with the seasonal march.
京都大学防災研究所年報 (57), 169-178, 2013