成層圏における惑星規模波反射現象の予測可能性 : 2014年2月の事例のアンサンブル再予報実験 Predictability of the Reflection of Planetary Waves in the Stratosphere : An Ensemble Reforecast Experiment for the Event in February 2014

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抄録

A series of reforecast experiments using the ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute is conducted to reveal the predictability and downward influence of a reflection event of stratospheric planetary waves in February 2014, which recorded the highest level of the downward propagation of the wave activity. The reflection is predictable from at least 7 days in advance. It is found that the skill of forecasts with a prediction period around the predictability limit crucially depends on whether planetary waves are reflected or absorbed in the stratosphere. Composite analyses also reveal that the persistence of the tropospheric wave source in the eastern hemisphere is a key in determining the propagating property of stratospheric planetary waves. When the reflection occurs in association with a weak persistence of the wave source, the subsequent downward propagating wave from the stratosphere enforces anomalous tropospheric circulation in the western hemisphere.

収録刊行物

  • 京都大学防災研究所年報 = DPRI annuals

    京都大学防災研究所年報 = DPRI annuals (58), 125-136, 2014

    京都大学防災研究所

各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    120005741162
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AN00027786
  • 本文言語コード
    JPN
  • 資料種別
    departmental bulletin paper
  • 雑誌種別
    大学紀要
  • ISSN
    0386-412X
  • NDL 記事登録ID
    026781548
  • NDL 請求記号
    YH247-547
  • データ提供元
    NDL  IR 
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