Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016

• Dinh, Linh

• Chowell, Gerardo

• Mizumoto, Kenji

• Nishiura, Hiroshi

抄録

Background: Florida State has reported autochthonous transmission of Zika virus since late July 2016. Here we assessed the transmissibility associated with the outbreak and generated a short-term forecast. Methods: Time-dependent dynamics of imported cases reported in the state of Florida was approximated by a logistic growth equation. We estimated the reproduction number using the renewal equation in order to predict the incidence of local cases arising from both local and imported primary cases. Using a bootstrap method together with the logistic and renewal equations, a short-term forecast of local and imported cases was carried out. Results: The reproduction number was estimated at 0.16 (95 % Confidence Interval: 0.13, 0.19). Employing the logistic equation to capture a drastic decline in the number of imported cases expected through the course of 2016, together with the low estimate of the local reproduction number in Florida, the expected number of local reported cases was demonstrated to show an evident declining trend for the remainder of 2016. Conclusions: The risk of local transmission in the state of Florida is predicted to dramatically decline by the end of 2016.

収録刊行物

• Theoretical biology and medical modelling

  Theoretical biology and medical modelling 13 20-, 2016-11-09

  BioMed Central

キーワード

• Prediction
• Zika virus
• Epidemic
• Mathematical model
• Basic reproduction number

詳細情報

• CRID: 1050564288975212288
• NII論文ID: 120005946860
• HANDLE: 2115/64316
• ISSN: 17424682
• 本文言語コード: en
• 資料種別: journal article
• データソース種別:
  • IRDB
  • CiNii Articles