現地気象観測データを用いた最低気温予測方法とその精度―インターネットを利用した最低気温予報システムの改良―

DOI 機関リポジトリ オープンアクセス

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  • Method for predicting minimum air temperature in the next morning using local meteorological observation data - Improvement on minimum air temperature forecasting system utilizing the Internet -

抄録

We have developed a minimum air temperature forecasting system using local meteorological observation data in order to prevent or mitigate the frost damage. In this paper, the correlation between the meteorological factors and the decrease in air temperature during the night was shown. Then minimum air temperature was predicted by the multiple regression equation that uses air temperature and humidity at 18:00 as explanatory variables. As the result, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.8°C. When the difference of air temperature between 17:00 and 18:00 was used for the prediction instead of humidity, the RMSE was 3.5°C. Next, the prediction was carried out only in clear nights, then the equation that use air temperature and humidity at 18:00 showed that the RMSE was 1.3°C. Although the predictive accuracy of the equations for clear nights is low on cloudy or rainy nights, we can forecast safely on frosty nights by using those equations in combination with the equations for all nights.

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