南極のオゾンホール発生に係わる気象データ因子に基づく統計的解析

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  • Statistical analysis based on meteorological data factors related to ozone hole generation in Antarctica

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Electric insulators and similar materials are often used in outdoor environments and exposed to ultraviolet rays. Electric cables are installed around Syowa Station in Antarctica as well. It is concerned that these cables may be affected by short wavelength ultraviolet rays due to the presence of ozone holes. Concerns are raised that ultraviolet rays may exert its influence not only in the polar areas but also in middle latitude areas. Using the observation data of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Institute for Environmental Studies, the authors conducted statistical analysis based on meteorological data factors of midair ozone concentration at Syowa Station. The concentrations of organic chlorine/bromine such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons in the Antarctic midair were shown to have the highest correlation with reduced ozone concentration. In addition, the ozone concentration in the Antarctic midair was also statistically confirmed to be correlated with midair temperature and the amount of solar radiation energy reaching the stratosphere. However, the ozone concentration in the midair at Syowa Station located inside the polar vortex was found to have no correlation with wind velocity in the midair. On the basis of the observation data, analysis was performed assuming multiple regression models. When statistical analysis was performed using three meteorological data factors such as the concentration of combined CFCs and halons, temperature, and solar radiation energy in the midair against the daily representative value of total amount of ozone in Antarctica, the adjusted coefficient of determination was 0.878, which is the highest correlation.

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