ベイズ手法に基づく大量アンサンブル気候予測データを用いた極値降雨量の信頼区間・予測区間の将来変化推定

• 清水 啓太

• 山田 正

• 山田 朋人

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Projection for Future Change of Confidence Interval and Prediction Interval Based on Bayesian Method

抄録

One of the difficulties of hydrological frequency analysis is how to manage nonstationarity of rainfall which is caused by climate change accompanied global warming. To manage nonstationarity of rainfall, using Bayesian statistics is effective. In this research, Bayesian update of extreme value distribution fitted with past observed data was conducted by using a large ensemble data base, d4PDF. d4PDF is constructed of an enormous amount of calculated values of climate models which simulated several thousand years for past climate and future climate. By using the information of d4PDF, we can estimate extremes which could occur in future time when global warming could proceed to some extent. Also, using the theory of probability limit method test to Bayesian updated extreme value distributions, both confidence intervals and prediction intervals in future climate can be constructed. Update of confidence interval and prediction interval based on Bayesian method can evaluate future change of design level rainfall and occurrence risk of catastrophic rainfalls in future climate and contribute construction of flood control management corresponding to climate change.

収録刊行物

• 中央大学理工学研究所論文集

  中央大学理工学研究所論文集 25 41-56, 2020-03-31

  中央大学理工学研究所

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390853649789901312
• NII論文ID: 120006870439
• DOI: 10.24789/00012386
• ISSN: 13430068
• Web Site: https://chuo-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/12401
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • IRDB
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用可