Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

• 坂本, 将吾

  Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

• 永井, 雄宇

  Socio-Economic Research Center, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

• 杉山, 昌広

  Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo

• 藤森, 真一郎

  Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto daigaku-katsura:National Institute for Environmental Studies

• 加藤, 悦史

  Institute of Applied Energy

• 小宮山, 涼一

  School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo

• 松尾, 雄司

  Institute of Energy Economics

• 大城, 賢

  Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto daigaku-katsura

• Herran, Silva Diego

  National Institute for Environmental Studies:Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

抄録

Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10years (950–1035TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established.

収録刊行物

• Sustainability Science

  Sustainability Science 16 (2), 395-410, 2021-03

  Springer Science and Business Media LLC

キーワード

• Demand-side decarbonization
• Electrification
• Multi-model scenario analysis

詳細情報

• CRID: 1050569302430461696
• NII論文ID: 120007026438
• NII書誌ID: AA12171356
• DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00935-w
• ISSN: 18624057
• ISSN: 18624065
• HANDLE: 2433/262592
• NDL書誌ID: 031348644
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I031348644
• Web Site: http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11625-021-00935-w.pdf
• Web Site: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-021-00935-w/fulltext.html
• 本文言語コード: en
• 資料種別: journal article
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