Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan

• Madaniyazi, Lina

• Ng, Chris Fook Sheng

• Seposo, Xerxes

• Toizumi, Michiko

• Yoshida, Lay-Myint

• Honda, Yasushi

• Armstrong, Ben

• Hashizume, Masahiro

抄録

Objectives: To investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics. Design: We conducted time-series analysis to estimate the seasonal amplitude before and after adjusting for temperature and/or influenza-like illness (ILI). Next, we applied linear mixed effect models to investigate the association of seasonal amplitudes with each indicator on prefecture-specific characteristics on climate, demographic and socioeconomic factors and adaptations. Setting: 47 prefectures in Japan Participants: Deaths for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease between 1999 and 2015. Outcome measures: Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a measure of seasonal amplitude). Results: The nationwide unadjusted-PTRs for all-cause, circulatory and respiratory mortality were 1.29 (95% CIs: 1.28 to 1.31), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.48), respectively. These PTRs reduced substantially after adjusting for temperature but very little after a separate adjustment for ILI. Furthermore, seasonal amplitudes varied between prefectures. However, there was no strong evidence for the associations of PTR with the indicators on prefecture-specific characteristics. Conclusions: Seasonality of mortality is primarily driven by temperature in Japan. The spatial variation in seasonal amplitudes was not associated with prefecture-specific characteristics. Although further investigations are required to confirm our findings, this study can help us gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seasonality of mortality.

BMJ Open, 11(7), art. no. e044876; 2021

収録刊行物

• BMJ Open

  BMJ Open 11 (7), e044876-, 2021-07-07

  BMJ Publishing Group

キーワード

• General Medicine

詳細情報

• CRID: 1050008553552374016
• NII論文ID: 120007168839
• ISSN: 20446055
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044876
• HANDLE: 10069/00041017
• Web Site: https://nagasaki-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/26849
• Web Site: https://syndication.highwire.org/content/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044876
• 本文言語コード: en
• 資料種別: journal article
• データソース種別:
  • IRDB
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN