Issue Voting and the ‘Manifesto Election’

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  • マニフェスト選挙以降の争点態度投票
  • マニフェスト センキョ イコウ ノ ソウテン タイド トウヒョウ

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explore problems for the effective functioning of democracy in Japan through an analysis of voters' political attitudes and electoral behavior in recent elections. The paper examines candidates' pledges at the 2004 Upper House election and measures the distance between voters' ideal points and party policy lines. To determine the extent to which people's vote choice is determined by their attitudes towards policy issues, the paper then analyzes voting patterns at the 2001, 2003 and 2004 elections in terms of both vote participation and the direction of votes. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the influence of election pledges on voting patterns remain minimal even with the advent of the widely hailed ‘Manifesto Election’. Not only is there little differentiation between the policy platforms of the two major parties, but these similar policy options put forward by the candidates hardly reflect voters' issue attitudes. This means that the electorate does not have effective choice in selecting candidates with policy goals closest to their ideal points, presenting grave implications for the democratic process in Japan.

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