大学進学率の地域格差の再検討:──男子の大学教育投資の都道府県別便益に着目して── Regional Differences in College Attendance Rates Reexamined:Focusing on Pecuniary Benefits of Higher Education for Males by Prefecture in Contemporary Japan
本稿では男子の大学進学率の地域格差，すなわち都道府県間の差が構造的に生ずるメカニズムを説明することを目的に，人的資本理論の枠組みに基づいて，都道府県別データと，高校生及びその保護者を対象とする質問紙調査の分析を行った。<BR> 分析の結果，得られた知見は以下の通りである。第一に，大卒と高卒の男子一般労働者の平均時給を県別に推計したところ，その相対賃金（大卒／高卒）が大きい県ほど大学進学率が低い。20～24歳の男子の相対賃金は，男子大卒労働需要（出身県の20～24歳の大卒就業者数を高卒就業者数で除して定義）と負の相関関係にある。<BR> 第二に，男子大卒労働需要を用いて，県単位の大学進学率の回帰分析を行った。その結果，大卒労働需要の大きい県ほど地方在住者の県外進学率や，進学率全体が高いことがわかった。なお県外と県内の進学率は負の相関関係にあるため，収容率は大学進学率全体にはほとんど関連性がない。<BR> 第三に，高校生調査を用いた分析でも同様の結果が得られた。大学進学希望の有無に関する二項ロジスティック回帰分析を行うと，個人間で異なる家計所得や学力を統制してもなお，大卒労働需要の多い県に住む男子ほど，大学進学希望を（地方在住者の場合，県外進学希望も）持つ見込みが高いことが確かめられた
In this article, the college-going behavior of Japanese high school seniors was analyzed under a Human Capitalist framework, using aggregate data for the prefectures of Japan, and a national sample of Japanese twelfth graders and their parents. The aim of this analysis is to propose an explanation that addresses the mechanisms generating the structural differences in male college attendance rates among prefectures, focusing on the pecuniary benefits of higher education for males that vary by region.<BR><BR>The major findings are as follows. First, an estimation of average hourly wage by prefecture for male general workers whose educational backgrounds are high school and college revealed that the larger the relative wage between high school graduates and those with a college degree (average earnings for college graduates divided by those of the high-school-educated), the smaller college attendance rates are. The relative wage for males in their early twenties is negatively correlated with the male labor demand for college graduates (defined as the number of college-educated youth workers divided by that of high-school-educated employees in their twenties in the prefecture where they reside).<BR><BR>Second, the prefectural college attendance rate was regressed on the regional labor demand for male college graduates. The analysis of twelfth graders whose prefectures of residence are in non-metropolitan areas clarified that the total rates of advancement to colleges and those to colleges outside of the prefecture of residence are higher in the prefectures with a greater male labor demand for the college-educated. Since enrollment rates for colleges outside or inside the prefecture are negatively correlated, there is scarcely any relationship between college capacity and the total rate of college enrollment.<BR><BR>Third, a survey data analysis of male high school seniors confirmed the 70 relationship between college attendance and regional labor demand for male college graduates. Binary logit models for male college plans maintained that the students living in prefectures with more job opportunities for male college graduates are more likely to anticipate college attendance, after controlling for individual variations in family income and academic achievement at the ninth grade. In addition, for those who reside in non-metropolitan areas where the amount of local college graduate job opportunities is large, students are more likely to attend outside-of-prefecture colleges.
教育社会学研究 91(0), 51-71, 2012