VOTERS'' CHOICE IN THE TANAKA VERDICT ELECTION

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • AN ANALYSIS OF AGGREGATE ELECTION DATA WITH MK RATIO

抄録

Japanese Lower House elections are based on the medium constituency system, where by each electoral district is assigned a specific number of seats in the Diet according to its size. This makes it difficult to analyze election results across an entire district. To overcome this difficulty, we developed the MK ratio, which was obtained by dividing the number of votes cast for each candidate by the legal minimum vote. The paper then analyzed the thirty seventh general election dubbed as “The Tanaka Verdict Election” in comparison to the previous elections.<BR> The analysis revealed the following findings:<BR> 1) Fluctuations in the number of successful LDP candidates are linked to movements in the floating vote. The floating vote consists of wavering LDP supporters who are attracted to or repelled by noted LDP candidates. This phenomenon is limited to urban electorates; 2) The Tanaka trial verdict did not affect all Tanaka faction candidates to the same degree. As Tanaka faction was conspicuously successful in the midst of the general LDP setback, gain within the faction were achieved by those politicians whose stance closely resembled the Tanaka style of regional advantage politics; 3) The opposition gains were the result of self-imposed losses on the LDP's part resulting from the alienation of the floating vote, and that this swing away from the LDP did not take the floating vote into the opposition camp; 4) High competition among LDP candidates in the same district did not result in opposition gain. The implications of the results of the recent election for the contemporary Japanese political system were also discussed.

収録刊行物

  • Behaviormetrika

    Behaviormetrika 12 (17), 53-65, 1985

    日本行動計量学会

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