1145. 認知的分析モデルを用いたアクシデントマネジメントに係る意思決定過誤率の定量化

• 吉田 至孝

  (株)原子力安全システム研究所

• 大谷 昌徳

  (株)原子力安全システム研究所

• 藤田 祐志

  (株)テクノバ

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Quantification of a Decision-making Failure Probability of the Accident Management Using Cognitive Analysis Model

抄録

In a nuclear power plant, much knowledge on severe accidents has been acquired through PSA, and accident management (AM) guidelines are prepared by incorporating that knowledge. In PSA, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability (DFP) of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipment. However, to date there has been no suitable quantification method for PSA to obtain DFP.<BR>In this study, we developed a new method for DFP quantification of an emergency organization using a cognitive analysis model, and tried to apply it to S2DC and TMLF sequence of a typical plant. As a result: (1) The methods enabled to DFP quantification appropriate to level 1.5PSA by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error factor. (2) The DFPs of six AMs appeared to be in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 (screening method) and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 (detailed method), and the DFP decreased about 50% as a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption. (3) The screening method was more conservative than the detailed method, and it was shown to satisfy the screening performance required by PSA.

収録刊行物

• 日本原子力学会和文論文誌

  日本原子力学会和文論文誌 2 (2), 99-114, 2003

  一般社団法人 日本原子力学会

キーワード

• pressurized water reactor
• human reliability analysis
• cognitive reliability
• severe accident
• PSA
• accident management
• CREAM
• decision making

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390282680162567936
• NII論文ID: 130003765422
• DOI: 10.3327/taesj2002.2.99
• ISSN: 21862931
• ISSN: 13472879
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可